Tradesense (a.k.a.Horse Sense)

This Blog was launched on 9th October 2008 just after the beginning of the worst financial crises the world is witnessing and fear seems to be reaching its peak.

Sixthsense investing appears to be the need of the time!! The intention is tickle it every week.


Friday, January 9, 2009

Market Impact: 2009 Watch List – Part 8

What are US Tips and Treasury yield spreads indicating?

By subtracting the yield of TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) of a particular maturity from the yield of an ordinary Treasury note/bond of the same maturity, you obtain the implied annualized inflation over the time to maturity.

Treasury Yield Curve (%)

Source: www.treasury.gov


As seen above the market is indicating a deflationary picture over the next five years. As of 5th January this expectation was over a 7 year period. How this expectation changes over 2009 will be interesting to monitor.

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Copyright © 2008 Tradesense

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Market Impact: 2009 Watch List – Part 7

How the US savings rate grows?

Americans are starting to save again rather than relying on capital gains to do their saving for them. The government says Americans set aside $260 billion from their disposable incomes in October, up from about $70 billion a year earlier. That's a step in the right direction for the long term, even though it intensifies the short-term downward pressure on the economy because consumers aren't spending.

The effort to save more amid weak income growth and tight credit will prevent consumers from providing their usual oomph to the recovery. As a result, businesses will not be as quick to expand.

The fall in oil and commodity prices saw disposable income improve and has pushed the savings rate to 2.8% which is an improvement from the 2005-07 figures of less than 1%. The refinancing of the mortgages at lower rates may also help in this process and can also be used to retire credit card debts."

Source: Business Week

This may appear as a negative factor from a consumer spending point of view as in many of the past downturns they have provided the push for recovery as they could borrow at low rates to lend. However in the current context given the individual leverage levels and falling income levels the psyche may not allow such a process.

Source: HSBC
The positive is that it will help soften the effect on the cost of stimulus that has to be paid at a future date. An increasing savings rate will help cushion the leverage risk that the US as a country has and is likely to see a substantial jump in the near future. Increase of this rate to the long term average of 7 to 8% will augur well for the future. How the US consumers tradeoff, is a must watch.

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Copyright © 2008 Tradesense

Market Impact: 2009 Watch List – Part 6

How US Retail landscape shape up?

“…This spending slump, which started in early 2008, has already claimed a number of retail casualties. Prominent national chains such as Linens 'n Things, Steve & Barry's, KB Toys, Whitehall Jewelers and Shoe Pavilion have gone out of business.

Still others such as No. 2 electronics seller Circuit City are barely surviving, hoping to find a lifeline while in bankruptcy protection.

But after suffering one of the worst year-end shopping seasons in decades - November and December combined can account for half of merchants' annual profits and sales - experts predict that many more chains will disappear.

The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that chain store closings could exceed 3,100 in just the first half of the year…..another 73,000 stores will close in the first half of 2009."

Need to watch as to what happens to the bailout retailers are pitching for.

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Copyright © 2008 Tradesense

India's Enron - Satyam

Just a diversion from our watch list continuation as Indian market was hit by a scandal where a respected (till yesterday) Chairman of the company Satyam Computer Services (NYSE:SAY) resigned on Wednesday, saying profits had been inflated over the last several years. The Indian market tanked as a result and the Indian IT sector - specially the services sector, may see tremendous pressure. So will the Indian auditing/accounting fraternity. It appears India will soon have its own Sarbanes-Oxley equivalent.

The ramification of this is that there could be many other companies both in India and other markets that would have stretched itself due to peer pressure and Street pressure and have cooked their books. Now in times of stress many companies and promoters are not able to find the cash to continue hiding. While others who did well genuinely may be tempted to cook books in these times of stress.

In a sense this has watch list implication that we have been discussing. Look at the Audited Annual Reports due for 2008 carefully to find apparent signs of window dressing. Banks would be the most vulnerable.

Following is the text of his letter, which was released by the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Note: references using Indian numerical system of crores and lakhs have been converted to Western system.
-------------------------------------------------------------
To the Board of Directors
Satyam Computer Services Ltd.

From B. Ramalinga Raju
Chairman, Satyam Computer Services Ltd. January 7, 2009

Dear Board Members,
It is with deep regret, and tremendous burden that I am carrying on my conscience, that I would like to bring the following facts to your notice:

1. The Balance Sheet carries as of September 30, 2008
a. Inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balances of 50.40 billion rupees ($1.04 billion) (as against 53.61 billion reflected in the books).
b. An accrued interest of 3.76 billion rupees which is non-existent.
c. An understated liability of 12.30 billion rupees on account of funds arranged by me.
d. An overstated debtors position of 4.90 billion rupees (as against 26.51 billion reflected in the books)


2. For the September quarter (Q2) we reported a revenue of 27.00 billion rupees and an operating margin of 6.49 billion rupees (24 pct of revenues) as against the actual revenues of 21.12 billion rupees and an actual operating margin of 610 million rupees (3 percent of revenues). This has resulted in artificial cash and bank balances going up by 5.88 billion rupees in Q2 alone.

The gap in the Balance Sheet has arisen purely on account of inflated profits over a period of last several years (limited only to Satyam standalone, books of subsidiaries reflecting true performance). What started as a marginal gap between actual operating profit and the one reflected in the books of accounts continued to grow over the years. It has attained unmanageable proportions as the size of company operations grew significantly (annualized revenue run rate of 112.76 billion rupees in the September quarter, 2008, and official reserves of 83.92 billion rupees). The differential in the real profits and the one reflected in the books was further accentuated by the fact that the company had to carry additional resources and assets to justify higher level of operations -- thereby significantly increasing the costs.

Every attempt made to eliminate the gap failed. As the promoters held a small percentage of equity, the concern was that poor performance would result in a take-over, thereby exposing the gap. It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten.

The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones. Maytas' investors were convinced that this is a good divestment opportunity and a strategic fit. Once Satyam's problem was solved, it was hoped that Maytas' payments can be delayed. But that was not to be. What followed in the last several days is common knowledge. I would like the Board to know:

1. That neither myself, nor the Managing Director (including our spouses) sold any shares in the last eight years -- excepting for a small proportion declared and sold for philanthropic purposes.

2. That in the last two years a net amount of 12.30 billion rupees was arranged to Satyam (not reflected in the books of Satyam) to keep the operations going by resorting to pledging all the promoter shares and raising funds from known sources by giving all kinds of assurances (Statement enclosed, only to the members of the board). Significant dividend payments, acquisitions, capital expenditure to provide for growth did not help matters. Every attempt was made to keep the wheel moving and to ensure prompt payment of salaries to the associates. The last straw was the selling of most of the pledged share by the lenders on account of margin triggers.

3. That neither me, nor the Managing Director took even one rupee/dollar from the company and have not benefitted in financial terms on account of the inflated results.

4. None of the board members, past or present, had any knowledge of the situation in which the company is placed. Even business leaders and senior executives in the company, such as, Ram Mynampati, Subu D, T.R. Anand, Keshab Panda, Virender Agarwal, A.S. Murthy, Hari T, S.V. Krishnan, Vijay Prasad, Manish Mehta, Murali V, Sriram Papani, Kiran Kavale, Joe Lagiola, Ravindra Penumetsa; Jayaraman and Prabhakar Gupta are unaware of the real situation as against the books of accounts. None of my or Managing Director's immediate or extended family members has any idea about these issues.

Having put these facts before you, I leave it to the wisdom of the board to take the matters forward. However, I am also taking the liberty to recommend the following steps:

1. A Task Force has been formed in the last few days to address the situation arising out of the failed Maytas acquisition attempt. This consists of some of the most accomplished leaders of Satyam:, Subu D, T.R. Anand, Keshab Panda and Virender Agarwal, representing business functions, and A.S. Murthy, Hari T and Murali V representing support functions. I suggest that Ram Mynampati be made the Chairman of this Task Force to immediately address some of the operational matters on hand. Ram can also act as an interim CEO reporting to the board.

2. Merrill Lynch can be entrusted with the task of quickly exploring some Merger opportunities.
3. You may have a restatement of accounts' prepared by the auditors in light of the facts that I have placed before you.

I have promoted and have been associated with Satyam for well over twenty years now. I have seen it grow from few people to 53,000 people, with 185 Fortune 500 companies as customers and operations in 66 countries. Satyam has established an excellent leadership and competency base at all levels. I sincerely apologize to all Satyamites and stakeholders, who have made Satyam a special organization, for the current situation. I am confident they will stand by the company in this hour of crisis.

In light of the above, I fervently appeal to the board to hold together to take some important steps. Mr. T.R. Prasad is well placed to mobilize support from the government at this crucial time. With the hope that members of the Task Force and the financial advisor, Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America) will stand by the company at this crucial hour, I am marking copies of this statement to them as well.

Under the circumstances, I am tendering my resignation as the chairman of Satyam and shall continue in this position only till such time the current board is expanded. My continuance is just to ensure enhancement of the board over the next several days or as early as possible.

l am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and face consequences thereof.
(B. Ramalinga Raju)

Copies marked to:
1. Chairman SEBI
2. Stock Exchanges

Source Yahoo.co.in

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Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Market Impact: 2009 Watch List – Part 5

How the financial health of the Big Three progresses?

With a 35% drop in sales reported by the big three auto companies the financial stress on them has only increased further. This will have its impact on employment as production is reduced. According to NYT G.M.’s chief market analyst, Michael C. DiGiovanni, said that the automaker was predicting industry sales of 10.5 million to 12 million vehicles for the year.

They recently received federal loans which provided some confidence to the market. The US automaker bailout is trickier than it may appear. The conditions that have been imposed - as an expert observed - are “structured for bankruptcy”. By end of March they will to prove that they are viable. By this time they need to negotiate with their creditors to have their debt modified or reduced by two thirds at the minimum. They also need have new agreements with their vendors with new conditions more favorable to them. The compensation and benefits of workers and executives also needs to be lowered. Putting all this together they need to show that they are viable. And if they are unable to deliver they need to repay the loan. This, most observers doubt if can be achieved in such a short period. This would be then a pre-packaged bankruptcy. Their only hope is for Obama to show them leniency.

The key questions are:

Will a pre-packaged bankruptcy be considered to allow them to renegotiate their outstanding loans and work out better arrangements with their dealers and the United Auto Workers?

How much will government interfere in the running of their businesses?

How will the government make it easier for them to do business? E.g. addressing the fifty-state fuel economy and exhaust emission regulations.

Signs of how long the government is willing to stand by these companies given that the whole process to stabilize may require anything between 3 to 5 years and may require upward of $100 bn. over this period.

Will all three be supported equally or the government might want to weigh which has the best chance? It could impact many shareholders which are pension funds and college endowments. It could feed the unemployment numbers also in a big way.

Will a higher federal gasoline tax be imposed to make people move to more fuel efficient cars?

GMAC, the lending arm of GM received $6bn.rescue package which was received by the market with bullishness. As one expert summarized:

GMAC is however not so well capitalized for it to push lending in a big way. Fed while approving for it become a bank holding co. has also asked it improve its capital adequacy by raising $30bn. Of the $6bn., 1bn. is going to GM to subscribe to GMAC rights issue. It has 5bn. of TARP money. For the balance capital requirement (apart from the $9bn. it had as of September) it concluded a debt for debt-and-preferred exchange offer, the deadline for which it had to extend several times. It says enough bondholders swapped their debt for it to meet the Fed’s capital requirement, but that doesn’t leave it with a huge amount of excess cash to leverage into new loans, or act as a buffer against future losses. The fear is that it may have to make more trips to make to the government as it is still loosing money.

There is a fear therefore that GMAC may add to the taxpayer bill further and there a pre-packaged bankruptcy would be a wiser option.

Watch the events unfold keenly as it will have massive ramifications from a market point of view.

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Copyright © 2008 Tradesense